Analysis|Laurent Crépeau
For
the past few years, the flow of migration from the Middle East to Europe has
increased exponentially. This leaves Europe in a very particular place as it
faces a very exceptional instance. The current migrant crisis is no casual
event. It is the largest migration flow to Europe since World War II, and
chances are it could influence history more than we are capable to conceive right
now.
The
current crisis is formidable in itself. Hundreds of thousands of migrants are
trying their luck on the difficult and sometimes very dangerous routes to reach
Europe. Millions are also dispersed in refugee camps in Middle Eastern
countries. Overall, more than four million Syrians have been displaced outside
of their country of origin. Not only is the figure mindboggling, its
implications for Europe are numerous and considerable.
Away from home
By
itself, migration will affect the lives of millions of people for generations
to come. Due to infighting in Syria, the country is in great parts destroyed
and it will be probably a few years before the civil war comes to an end. With
Russian troops now intervening in the Syrian government’s favour, the war which
originally sought to depose Bashar al-Assad will most likely end up with the
latter remaining in power. This will be a tremendous blow to the aspirations of
freedom inherited from the Arab Spring. Not only did Syrians already lose so
much in this war, in the end, it will have served very few purposes.
The
country will be in reconstruction and a number of Syrians might decide to come
back to their homeland, yet many, possibly, will remain in Europe, unwilling to
return to a Syria still under Assad’s hegemony. This entails demographic
changes for Europe and other Middle Eastern countries.
Parts
of the Syrian diaspora will be divided among European countries. In all
likeliness, with many Syrian nationals becoming permanent European residents,
it is quite possible that families decide to emigrate from Syria in order to be
with their relatives. With around 680,000 asylum seekers arriving in Europe
since April 2011, this will contribute to diversifying the European population.
This is not the most significant vicissitude of current migrations, however. The
prospect of massive numbers of migrants coming to Europe impacts on many more
factors to be examined in this piece.
Euroscepticism and the rise of the
far-right
The
European Union was born in 1992 upon the ratification of the Maastricht Treaty.
It established the Euro as common currency and put in place a supranational
pillar of government consisting in three main institutions: the European
Commission, the European Parliament and the European Court of Justice.
The
European Union has long had its detractors. Recently, however, their numbers
have been growing and they have become more vocal. Leaving the European Union
is now more and more considered a viable option by the masses. Much of this
resentment is due to Europe’s stormy relationship with an increasingly present
globalization and international migration that many European nationals feel is
infringing on their own self-determination.
Economic
problems are also widespread in Europe. A shared opinion among experts is that
a critical flaw in the current structure of the European Union is that it was
made to unite widely different peoples and economies at various stages of their
development. As such, a number of Europeans resent the fact that their
government is spending money in economic aid to other countries with high
unemployment and poor economic situation.
Put
together, these factors led to the rise of the Eurosceptic far-right which
proposes the restoration of borders and return to nation-states. The rise of
far-right parties in Europe was definitely felt during the last European
election, which took place in 2014 and consistently has had its presence
increase from one national election to the other. Case-in-point, France’s Front National received nearly 18% of
votes during the first round of the 2012 French Presidential Election. Likewise
the Freedom Party of Austria received
24% of votes in the last Austrian National Council Election in 2013 and the
Hungarian Jobbik received 20.54% of
the vote in Hungary’s last national election. These are but a few examples of
an ideology in growing popularity.
The end of the European Union?
With
the future of the European Union already uncertain the migrant crisis might
become a defining factor in Europe’s future. The formidable flow of asylum
seekers crossing the Mediterranean or attempting to cross in Europe through the
Balkans might become the one factor that exacerbates tensions already present
in Europe to the point where some countries decide to opt out of the Union.
With nations already opposed to welcoming any substantial number of migrants within
their borders, resentment of the Union might starkly increase as politicians
start accusing the latter of infringing on state sovereignty. This coupled with
economic uncertainty like in the case of Greece, might lead to irreparable
dissensions between the institutions of the European Union and its
member-states. And this is not mere conjecture.
As
part of its campaign promises, the UK Conservative Party has proposed to hold a
referendum on whether the United Kingdom should remain part of the European
Union by 2017 if negotiations with the European Union were to be inconclusive. A
“Brexit” is thus definitely possible. And the British are not the first to
suggest they might decide to leave the Union. Greece came close to doing so
earlier this year.
Whatever
one might think of the migrant crisis and how Europe should tackle this
possibly game-changing problematic, it is clear that its repercussions could be
multiple and serious. As of writing this, it is still too early to tell whether
the European Commission’s strategy to addressing this problem will be
sufficient or whether European member-states will be aggravated to the point of
pulling out of the Union. As of now, Europe is walking on thin ice and the
migrant crisis could well enough be the additional weight that breaks it. This could
be an instance where humans might be witnessing a major event in their history
as it is happening.
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